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Showing 1–3 of 3 matches
English Championship
QPR vs Derby
Kickoff
Match status awaiting update
Last observed status: Live
Last status update: 14 Oct 2026 · 19:05 UTC
Shepherd’s pre-match view
Draw
Double chance · X2
Derby win or draw
Analysis from
The pre-match view and double chance refer to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time, penalty shootouts and which team advances are separate from this analysis.
Explore the analysis for QPR vs Derby
The figures below compare Shepherd’s model with the market view recorded for this analysis. They are not live odds or a guarantee of the outcome.
QPR win
Shepherd model
26.7%
Market-implied
60.6%
Difference
-33.9 pp
Draw
Shepherd model
40.0%
Market-implied
25.6%
Difference
+14.4 pp
Derby win
Shepherd model
33.3%
Market-implied
20.0%
Difference
+13.3 pp
How to read these figures for QPR vs Derby
Shepherd model
The model’s estimated probability for this outcome.
Market-implied
The probability implied by the recorded odds.
Difference · pp
Shepherd model minus market-implied probability, in percentage points. A plus sign means the model is higher; a minus sign means it is lower.
Market-implied figures are calculated from the recorded odds without adjusting their total to 100%. The difference is measured in percentage points (pp); it does not establish profitability. Display figures are rounded to one decimal place.
Observed head-to-head meetings: 5. Missing slots allocated to draw: 0. These allocations are model treatment, not observed draws.
The pre-match view and double chance refer to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time, penalty shootouts and which team advances are separate from this analysis.
Explore the analysis for Norwich vs Southampton
The figures below compare Shepherd’s model with the market view recorded for this analysis. They are not live odds or a guarantee of the outcome.
Norwich win
Shepherd model
13.3%
Market-implied
40.8%
Difference
-27.5 pp
Draw
Shepherd model
55.0%
Market-implied
27.8%
Difference
+27.2 pp
Southampton win
Shepherd model
31.7%
Market-implied
38.2%
Difference
-6.5 pp
How to read these figures for Norwich vs Southampton
Shepherd model
The model’s estimated probability for this outcome.
Market-implied
The probability implied by the recorded odds.
Difference · pp
Shepherd model minus market-implied probability, in percentage points. A plus sign means the model is higher; a minus sign means it is lower.
Market-implied figures are calculated from the recorded odds without adjusting their total to 100%. The difference is measured in percentage points (pp); it does not establish profitability. Display figures are rounded to one decimal place.
Observed head-to-head meetings: 5. Missing slots allocated to draw: 0. These allocations are model treatment, not observed draws.
See exact recorded figures for Norwich vs Southampton
The pre-match view and double chance refer to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time, penalty shootouts and which team advances are separate from this analysis.
Explore the analysis for Lincoln vs West Ham
The figures below compare Shepherd’s model with the market view recorded for this analysis. They are not live odds or a guarantee of the outcome.
Lincoln win
Shepherd model
6.7%
Market-implied
20.0%
Difference
-13.3 pp
Draw
Shepherd model
73.3%
Market-implied
26.3%
Difference
+47.0 pp
West Ham win
Shepherd model
20.0%
Market-implied
59.9%
Difference
-39.9 pp
How to read these figures for Lincoln vs West Ham
Shepherd model
The model’s estimated probability for this outcome.
Market-implied
The probability implied by the recorded odds.
Difference · pp
Shepherd model minus market-implied probability, in percentage points. A plus sign means the model is higher; a minus sign means it is lower.
Market-implied figures are calculated from the recorded odds without adjusting their total to 100%. The difference is measured in percentage points (pp); it does not establish profitability. Display figures are rounded to one decimal place.
Observed head-to-head meetings: 1. Missing slots allocated to draw: 4. These allocations are model treatment, not observed draws.
See exact recorded figures for Lincoln vs West Ham
Lincoln win Shepherd model: 6.666666666666667% Market-implied: 20% Difference: -13.333333333333332 pp
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